Giant performance decline, but the rise of new products against the trend, the food industry changes...
Foreword: Recently, the major brands have released their own financial results. Many traditional giants have shown varying degrees of decline or slowdown in the world or in China, and some companies have even experienced four consecutive years of decline. Many of the giants attributed the reason to "slowing economic growth and insufficient consumer demand" or "challenging macroeconomic environment". However, throughout the global and Chinese markets, a number of new products with rapid growth have emerged. These dazzling new stars have risen against the trend and devoured the market share of the giants. The contrast between the giants and the new products, we have to ask: Is the market going down, or is the giant not going? How do those new products rise against the trend?
This paper analyzes the overall situation of the current food industry from the data of the global industry, reveals the real reasons for the decline of giants, and the real secrets of the current rise of emerging categories and enterprises, in order to find the current growth direction and driving force of the food industry.
Giant in decline
According to data released by Nestle, sales in 2016 were 89.5 billion Swiss francs. Excluding price factors, the actual growth was only 2.4 percent, far lower than the 5% plan. In 2016, Nestlé's sales in Greater China decreased by 7.4 compared to 2015.
Compared to Nestle, Coca-Cola has a harder time. 2016 full-year sales fell 5.49 percent year-on-year, and Coca-Cola's global performance has been declining for four consecutive years.
The days of other giants do not seem to be much better either. The total revenue of Mondelez International fell 12% year on year. Although there was a factor of JDE divestiture, this was a continuous decline of Mondelez in the past 13 quarters. In addition, General Mills and Mars both performed poorly, and Hershey even broke down in the Chinese market.
The performance of China's traditional giants is even more worrying. Master Kang's overall performance has been declining continuously since 2014, with profits falling 32% in the first three quarters of 2016. In addition, Unification, China Wangwang and Wahaha also began to encounter an inflection point in 2014 and continue to decline so far.
As for the reasons for the decline, the most common words in the financial reports of companies are: "Emerging market economic growth is slowing and consumer demand is weakening."
Is demand really weakening?
It is an indisputable fact that the global economy is still weak, and even the economic growth rate of emerging markets is slowing down. China's economic growth slowed from 10.6 percent in 2013 to 6.7 percent in 2016.
The food industry has also been implicated. Data released by Euromonitor Information Consulting shows that the global food industry's growth has fallen to its lowest level in 10 years, only 1.1 percent. Kaido's data also show that "annual sales of China's fast-moving consumer goods market increased by 2.9 per cent in 2016, lower than the 3.5 per cent growth in 2015 and the lowest in nearly a decade.
However, although the data of the world and China have slowed down, they are still growing continuously, not declining. In his interpretation of "2017 China's consumption trend", Nielsen also said that "the contribution of consumption expenditure to GDP growth is also very obvious, which is 71%, indicating that the willingness to consume is relatively strong." This means that the demand of Chinese consumers is not weakening, but on the whole is rising. Euromonitor's data also shows that some categories are growing rapidly.
With the upgrading of consumption, consumers are pursuing higher quality and healthier food and beverages. Therefore, in the slowing environment, some categories are still growing rapidly.
Snack Food: Trillion Level Market
In recent years, it can be said that the period of leisure food outbreak, and the overall food industry growth curve.
In the United States, with the acceleration of the pace of personalized life and the shrinking of the number of dining units, "snacks for dinner (paraphrase: Snackification)" is becoming a rapidly rising wave. In China, the improvement of living standards and the advancement of urbanization have also created huge growth space for snack foods.
Flavor snacks, nut snacks, assorted nuts snacks are the three categories of snack growth (however, sweet candy and ice cream continue to decline). Innova Market Insights data that the global market share of new fruit snacks has more than doubled, from nearly 8% to nearly 18% today. The growth rate of fruit snacks is only second to flavor snacks and nut/seed snacks.
According to Packaging Strategies reports, the snack market will reach US $87 billion in 2016 (North America should be referred to). Snack consumption will account for 51% of food consumption in the United States, compared with 40% in 2015.
The scale of China's snack food is also amazing. The retail market size of China's snack food industry was 401.4 billion yuan in 2010, 822.4 billion yuan in 2016 and 1298.4 billion yuan in 2020.
Alternative drinks: doubling in next three years
Primary alternative drinks
Alternative beverages should be the highlight of growth in the beverage industry.
Also by consumers more pursuit of health, looking for alternative to traditional high-calorie, polysaccharide drinks, alternative drinks are becoming more and more popular, alternative drinks are currently based on plant water and NFC juice. Zenith Global's report shows that global sales of alternative beverages soared 21% to 2.7 billion US dollars (Euromonitor estimated at 2.2 billion US dollars) in 2016, and the overall market is expected to double by 2020, compared with 0.533 billion US dollars five years ago.
Among them, "coconut water" is obviously the star, currently occupying 96% of the total plant water. Coca-Cola and Pepsi have long been aware of this trend. Coca-Cola has taken the coconut water brand Zico into its pocket. Pepsi is also laying out its layout. ONE coconut water and Kero Coco coconut water have been won successively. These plus Vita Coco dominate the global market for alternative drinks.
In China, we have also seen the admission of many coconut water, including Vita Coco, which was introduced into China by Huabin Group in 2014, and a tropical wave was blowing, followed by the admission of many new products. The popularity of coconut water has brought a lot of pressure to the traditional coconut juice giant coconut trees.
The NFC juice market also has potential. According to the Tetra Pak Juice Index report released by Tetra Pak on September 19, 2016, "100 percent of the global pure juice market is showing unprecedented vitality. From 2012 to 2015, the annual compound growth rate of functional 100 percent pure juice products is 31%, while the annual compound growth rate of new products with vegetable juice as the main ingredient is as high as 43%. "Natural health" has become the preferred factor for consumers to buy 100 per cent pure fruit juice."
Functional Foods: Oligarchs Go Long
Note: Functional foods in this article generally refer to health foods, dietary supplements, energy drinks and other functional foods.
The rise of health food and functional food is closely related to the improvement of consumer income and self-health awareness.
Orbis Research data show that the global health food market reached $183.8 billion in 2015 and is expected to reach $295 billion in 2020.
Sillot predicts that China's health food market will add 100 billion yuan in the next five years. Functional food will exceed trillion yuan.
Among them, energy drinks have always attracted much attention. According to the 2016 Review of Sports and Energy Drinks released by Mintel, energy drinks continued to grow. In 2015, the global energy drink market soared by 10%. The consumption of energy drinks in China is growing fastest, with an annual growth rate of an astonishing 25%, almost four times the annual growth rate of consumption in the United States. The rising consumer demand for energy drinks, especially the strong interest in natural energy drinks, has stimulated innovation in the global industry. The number of energy drink products increased by 29% between 2010 and 2015.
Traditionally, in the field of energy drinks, Red Bull is almost the only one in the world. In recent years, competitive challengers have emerged in both the global and Chinese markets. The functional beverage market has entered an era of multi-head competition, which has jointly promoted the growth of the market.
Yogurt and dairy alternative drinks: unlimited prospects
Yogurt and dairy alternative drinks are equally striking in the context of the overall decline in dairy products. The global dairy market is basically in a downward trend. Euromonitor data shows that the global dairy retail market fell 9% in 2015, and the downward trend continued into 2016. The following yogurt and dairy alternative drinks are introduced respectively.
According to Euromonitor's data, China's yogurt market has experienced a period of rapid growth. From 2015 to 2016, yogurt sales increased by 25.6, the highest growth rate in 7 years. At the same time, yogurt sales in 2016 have basically caught up with milk. The yogurt market will be about 100 billion in 2016 and will reach 190 billion in 2020.
Global Regional Dairy Retail Performance by Category
But the European and American markets and emerging markets are showing a different trend, yogurt category in Europe and the United States is slowing down, in the United States or even decline. However, it cannot be ignored that "Greek yogurt" still maintained double-digit growth in the United States in 2016. The sales volume of Greek yogurt in US dollars soared from US $0.391 billion in 2010 to US $3.7 billion in 2015, maintaining the same growth trend. It is believed that Greek yogurt already accounts for more than 50% of yogurt in 2016, which does not rule out the overall growth of yogurt in North America starting from 2017.
Dairy alternative drinks
There are different definitions of dairy substitute drinks and vegetable protein drinks, but these two categories basically refer to soybean milk, almond milk, oat milk, coconut milk and so on. Usually, the two names can be defaulted to refer to the same product. However, in the context, dairy alternative beverages can also include non-milk categories such as goat's milk and camel's milk. Therefore, dairy alternative beverages have a broader meaning.
BCC's Research report shows that the global alternative dairy beverage market is expected to reach US $10.9 billion in 2019 from US $5.8 billion in 2014, expanding at a compound annual growth rate of 13.3 per cent. The Asia-Pacific market accounted for 50.4 per cent of the global market in 2013. According to the statistics of Technavio market research company, almond milk is the fastest growing category, with a compound annual growth rate of about 15% in the next few years.
Mo Xiaoyan, marketing strategy manager of DuPont, pointed out: "In the past 10 years, the average annual compound growth rate of sales and sales volume of China's plant protein beverage market is 24.4 and 21.3 respectively. The annual growth rate of sales in 2015 will be 28%. It is estimated that by 2019, the market size of China's plant protein beverage will reach about 159.4 billion yuan."
On one side is the declining giant, and on the other side is the growth data. Who is leading the growth of the market?
Against the trend, who is harvesting the market?
The strong growth of the subdivision category has also created the conditions for the birth of the next food giant. Correspondingly, the rise of some enterprises is also promoting the rise of their categories. These rising stars against the trend, in the industry slowdown trend, especially shining. It is these rising new products that are frantically harvesting the market of traditional giants.
New products rising against the trend
Snack Class of Three Squirrels
Snacks are already a red sea in the global and Chinese market, but in China, in recent years, there have been superstars in the snack category, three squirrels, good product shops, and the smell of herbs. Their models are not the same, and their growth is mostly accompanied by the concept of "online" or "new retail". However, their common characteristics are the selection of "high-quality products", which are fully innovative in products, packaging and user experience, so that the traditional snack industry presents a new style. Among these emerging snack companies, the shortest creation time and the fastest growth are undoubtedly the three squirrels.
On January 11, 2017, the three squirrels announced that their 2016 annual sales exceeded 5.5 billion and their net profit reached 0.263 billion. However, the company is less than five years old. Its growth rate is almost doubling every year.
"Internet", "e-commerce", "rejuvenation" and "word-of-mouth marketing" are all key words to describe the success of the three squirrels. Zhang Liaoyuan said, "the success of the three squirrels lies in stepping on the rhythm of the development of the Internet at every step".
The growth history of the three squirrels undoubtedly has a great relationship with the era when the rise of e-commerce has brought about a complete change in consumers' shopping patterns. In the book "Father Squirrel and Three Squirrels: The Road to IP and Humanized Operation of Internet Brand" (by the mouse), it is undoubtedly a very accurate judgment to describe Father's judgment on the current situation:
He has done a long time of research on brands such as Fool Guazi, Qiaqia, and Laiyifan. These brands are produced almost every ten years.
During the reform and opening up of our country in the 1980 s, no one dared to do business on the street, and the bold Nian Guangjiu made the fool melon seeds into a rage;
In the 1990 s, China's supermarkets had just risen. Qiaqia packed products into small bags and put them into supermarkets, which solved the arbitrariness of casual snacks and brought convenience to people;
After 2000, chain operation appeared in the Chinese market, and Laiyifen set up a chain of stores offline, which brought consumers more convenient purchase methods and more professional services.
These new industries, which are born every ten years, are constantly refreshing and subverting the sales model of the food industry. But now the Internet era has come, in Zhang Liaoyuan's view, the rise of online shopping will change people's way of life.
The "marketing" of the three squirrels is often talked about. However, Zhang Liaoyuan said like this: "Marketing 150 points, products should also achieve 100 points!" Most of the consumers who have bought the product experience of the three squirrels have the same feeling. Compared with ordinary products of the same type, the three squirrels have better quality and younger packaging design. For example, Hawaiian fruit comes with its own "fruit opener" and provides wet paper towels, which exceed users' expectations in many details. Therefore, the three squirrels can continuously obtain loyal customers one by one in each consumption, and trigger the spread of public praise.
The growth momentum of the three squirrels, as well as the all-round investment in the supply chain and R & D, and at the same time began to lay out the offline strategy, let us see the possibility of it growing into 10 billion, or even a global 100 billion-level enterprise.
Alternative Drink: Vita Coco
The biggest star of alternative drinks is "Vita Coco", which has been blowing a cool breeze around the world since 2006.
First look at the data:
In 2006, he rose rapidly to the top spot in the North American Tetra Pak coconut water market.
In 2009, only he can more than 60% of the market share far ahead of other brands in the industry.
In 2014, Vesco cooperated with Huabin Group to enter the Chinese market and achieved sales of 0.1 billion yuan in 2015.
In 2016, the global performance of only cocoa could reach 1 billion US dollars (Bloomberg reported), accounting for almost 1/2 of the global share.
Hu Weibin, manager of Indonesia's three services in China, known as "Uncle Ye", once described the reason why coconut water exploded in North America:
Why does coconut water catch fire in the United States? Coconut water is actually a product that Brazil already packed into Tetra Pak in 1994. In the late 1990 s, the United States already had coconut water cans from Southeast Asia.
But why didn't it catch fire all the time instead of waiting until around 2008? Coconut water in three-piece cans, cans or glass bottles has always been a specialty local product sold in Asian supermarkets in the United States, which doesn't taste like coconut water at all, how to drink like sugar cane water or horseshoe water, and the ingredient list is not clean.
It wasn't until Tetra Pak's coconut water came out on the market that mainstream consumers in the United States noticed that coconut water was a product that met their needs. The first ingredient is clean, and the second package material meets the environmental protection requirements.
Moreover, when coconut water was initially promoted in the United States, yoga studios and gyms were the first places to appear. It appeared in the mainstream public's view as a natural sports drink, focusing on selling points such as natural hydration, electrolyte supplement and low calorie.
It took at least three years to pave the way for the promotion of this image in the United States. After that, Vita Coco invited various stars to be spokesmen and shareholders, Shengsheng turned coconut water into a tide drink with star aura, which is why it became popular. Coconut water is the first fire because of the natural sports drink tide drink such elements.
In short, Vita Coco's success is due to several factors: the product conforms to the concept of health, the packaging conforms to the demands of convenience and environmental protection, and the marketing with star halo has contributed to its becoming a trendy drink.
The Monster of Functional Drinks (Magic Claw)
Monster Energy (Talon) is a high-energy drink produced by Hansen, which is one of the few energy drinks that can match Red Bull in recent years.
Huang Hai, vice president of Fangrui Capital, once rated Monster as "the most eye-catching company in the American food industry since the 21st century." he described the growth of Monster as follows: "the share price of Monster Beverage rose from $1.36 in 2004 to $160.78 in 2016, an increase of 117 times, making it the stock with the highest growth rate in the United States in the past decade. In the US beverage market, Monster, as an emerging brand in the 21st century, has a market share (39%) second only to Red Bull (43%)."
Although, judging from the 2016 financial report, the growth in the United States has slowed down severely, however, it does not hinder Monster from advancing all the way in the global market. In 2016, Monster Energy's global sales were $3 billion, up 12% from 2015. Gross margin is as high as 63.7.
Monster story begins with "an unknown business acquired by an unknown South African businessman". However, at the beginning of its success, the most important factor is the strategic transformation. (Hansen's Natural), an ordinary fruit juice and soda manufacturer, began to realize that "behind the popular trend, 'selling sugar water' is doomed to have no future." Therefore, in 1997, Hansen decided to transform the energy drink market and launched a product called "Hansen Energy Drink. However, the first functional beverage did not succeed, and after five years of suffering, I realized that it was bound to break away from the original enterprise name to give customers the brand understanding, reborn, even the name of our own company had to be abandoned, and finally "Monster Energy" was born.
A series of subsequent strategies allowed "Monster Energy" to reach the peak of energy step by step. Summarize the main success factors of the Monster:
First, the transformation with great foresight and courage: as early as 1997, we began to boldly test the fields that are not favored by all. Early market trial and error and actively adjust the strategy.
Second, the impact of the name and impressive brand image
Third, sponsor the coolest sports, emphasize "release the wild", more in line with American culture, and successfully create adhesion to attract young consumers.
Fourth, Coca-Cola's acquisition of a 16.7 per cent stake in Monster Beverage allows Monster to take advantage of Coca-Cola's strong global distribution network to quickly expand into the world and quickly realize "buying convenience".
The Chobani of Yogurt
Since its launch in Chobani in 2007, it has taken the world by storm. In 2016, it accounted for 50% of the Greek yogurt market in the United States. While U.S. yogurt is declining, Greek yogurt represented by Chobani has maintained double-digit growth every year. The sales of Greek yogurt in U.S. dollars have soared from 0.391 billion U.S. dollars in 2010 to 3.7 billion U.S. dollars in 2015. In North America, it has frantically seized the yogurt market of traditional giants Danone and General Mills.
The success of the Chobani is also inseparable from the consumer trend of the pursuit of healthier and better quality products. Chobani is precisely positioning themselves for high-quality, high-end, healthy yogurt, making up for the huge vacancy in the market.
Its founder, Ulukaya from Turkey, is as paranoid about product pursuit as Jobs, and his obsessive-compulsive control of every detail makes him completely subvert the yogurt industry. Where is its subversion?
First, start with the ultimate product.
Second, the packaging should be just as perfect.
Third, reject the traditional channels of Greek yogurt and push it to the mass market.
Fourth, marketing should detonate the market and give full play to the effect of word-of-mouth communication.
Fifth, fully grasp the supply chain and production, reduce costs, establish barriers
The careful design of each step and a series of combined measures have made Chobani one of the most successful food companies in North America in recent years.
These successful enterprises and the reasons for their success indicate deep changes in the food industry and consumers.
an unstoppable tide
Different emerging enterprises represent different categories, but almost all reflect the same market trend: consumption upgrading, high-end, health, youth and e-commerce. These trends are also reflected in the sub-categories of the giants. Among the declining giants, there are also many categories or businesses that have achieved rapid growth in line with the current trend (including Nestle's health science business, Coca-Cola's high-end yogurt in North America, Mondelez's e-commerce business, etc.).
These unstoppable trends also reveal one of the reasons for the decline of traditional giants: in the past, emerging markets or traditional channels were the pride of the growth of the giants, but now emerging markets or traditional channels have become a drag on the performance of some giants.
Only by following the trend is the way out for transformation. These trends include not only the overall innovation and upgrading of products (product packaging marketing), but also the transformation of channels.
Behind these keywords such as consumption upgrade, high-end, health, youthfulness, and e-commerce, there may be a bigger secret, that is, millennials have become the main force of consumption. They are well-educated and pursue individuality., Pay more attention to the quality of consumption, and understand the Internet better. They are the main consumers of e-commerce. What's more, they have sustained incomes that are rapidly filling the ranks of the middle class.
The emerging generation shows completely different consumption concepts and living habits from the previous generation, which is the most noteworthy feature of this trend. It reveals the most fundamental reason for the decline of the giant. At this point, do you still believe that the reason for the giant's decline is "the economy is slowing down and consumer demand is weakening?"
The following suggestions may be helpful for food companies to pursue long-term growth.
Innovation-the evergreen road to the foundation
Innovation, innovation, re-innovation
Chobani,Monster,Vita Coco and the three squirrels represent not only an upgrade in consumption, but also successful companies that stand out from innovation in different segments. To sum up their success, in addition to the commendable "founder's foresight and layout for a longer-term future", there are the following common factors worth learning:
Innovation is far more than the product itself, but also includes packaging, brand image, marketing, and even the overall innovation and upgrading of production and supply chain.
For enterprises, the more important ability should be the ability of "continuous re innovation". Any kind of technology, mode and the advantage obtained at a certain point may be out of date, which forces enterprises to continuously obtain advantages at more points. That's why giants can't rest easy on their past achievements.
"Innovation" is a high-frequency word in recent years. However, the innovation that should be at the forefront is "technology".
Technology drives innovation, breaking the boundaries of dreams
R & D is the foundation of an industry, but science and technology is the foundation of R & D. The birth and rise of a category, without exception, requires technological breakthroughs and the realization of large-scale applications. Advances in science and technology have allowed innovation and ideas to break through the boundaries of tradition. From a commercial point of view, technological breakthroughs and large-scale applications are an opportunity to seize the commanding heights of the market.
Technology: Subversion and Creation Industry
Historically, the changes brought about by aseptic processing and packaging technology to the food industry have been disruptive, and it has even created new industries.
Instant ultra-high temperature aseptic processing technology was hailed by the American Institute of Food Technology as the most important achievement in food science in the past 50 years (1989). Tetra Pak is a pioneer in the field of aseptic packaging and processing technology. It is also because of Tetra Pak's technical support that milk sources from Inner Mongolia, China can be continuously transported to the vast national market. Yili and Mengniu have rapidly emerged as the country's leading dairy companies thanks to technological progress and Tetra Pak's support.
If the dairy revolution is the past tense of Tetra Pak, an established company, then the change of alternative beverages is another great round of progress.
Similar technology is also applied in the field of coconut water. Once opened, coconut water is easy to change color, taste and deteriorate, which makes coconut water only popular in tropical areas for a long time. However, Tetra Pak's comprehensive technical support from processing, filling and packaging allows coconut water to retain its original flavor to a greater extent and greatly extend its shelf life. "Tetra Pak Drill", a package suitable for "drinking in transit" combined with many science and technology, helped coconut water pry open the US market and became popular all over the world.
At present, the mainstream coconut water seen in the market today, Vita Coco, Zico coconut water, Malee Coco, ONE coconut water and Kero Coco coconut are almost all "Tetra Pak diamond" packages. Tetra Pak has contributed to the rise of coconut water.
In addition to aseptic processing technology, freeze-drying, decaffeination technology, etc. are all changing the food industry in the past and now.
At present, the integration of the Internet, Internet of Things, medicine, biology and other industries with food is accelerating the evolution of world food.
The integration of food with nutrition, medical care and the Internet
Perhaps the most significant and far-reaching cross-border is the combination of food and medical treatment.
With the popularity of precision medicine, on the one hand, ordinary functional foods are advanced to medical foods (Medical Food) to prevent and assist in the treatment of specific diseases. For example, Nestlé Health Science established in 2011 develops medical foods for aging, neurological diseases, infant diseases, obesity, postoperative repair, gastrointestinal tract and metabolic related diseases. On the other hand, customized personal nutrition solutions are also emerging through the analysis of personal phenotype and genotype big data, such as basic Mosaic Nutrition customized vitamins, mid-range Habit customized meal plan, high-end carbon cloud intelligent digital health management platform, etc.
In 2016, Nestlé spent $0.13 billion to acquire Phagenesis, a medical device company, and announced a partnership with South Korea's Samsung Group to explore the potential of nutrition science and digital sensor technology to develop a new digital health platform to provide consumers with more personalized nutrition, lifestyle and health advice.
Nestlé is pleased that the proportion of health science business in Nestlé has increased year by year, with sales of about 4 billion Swiss francs in 2015, accounting for more than 4% of Nestlé's total revenue.
More in-depth technical research and cross-border integration will be a major trend in scientific research in the food industry, and it will also subvert the food industry more quickly and thoroughly in the future. This speed may be as fast as the speed of e-commerce sweeping the world. People are caught off guard and unpredictable. For food companies, there is no doubt that if they want to occupy the commanding heights of the future, they must undoubtedly stand at the forefront of science and technology.
The everlasting road to the foundation -- the value and mission of the enterprise.
In his preface to "The Foundation Evergreen 2-Why the Foundation Can't Evergreen," Jiang Ruxiang said, "What really convinced me was Collins' emphasis on 'mission' and 'values', and many great companies were founded for goals higher than making money. George Merck II, the founder of the pharmaceutical giant Merck, has been assiduously trying to cure people..."
Health, nutrition, nature, joy, simplicity, etc., any word that is beneficial to consumers should not only be regarded as a hype concept, but instead, it should be the natural mission of food companies.
Health food and functional food are more and more popular; the rise of natural food and beverage is because people are tired of unhealthy food; snacks are becoming more and more popular, so that there is a "dinner snack". It is undeniable that the public's diet, nutrition and health, and even physical and mental pleasure will increasingly rely on food companies. For food companies, opportunities and responsibilities coexist.
From the perspective of business logic, how to find the next "popular them" is nothing more than to continuously tap the needs that are really beneficial to customers and meet them.
When the mission of all food companies is to continuously provide consumers with better and healthier products and bring more joy, why fear the thousands of changes in the world?
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